Analyzing How Credit Risk Influences the Performance of Commercial Banks in Bangladesh: A Quantile Regression Modeling

Abstract

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One of the main challenges faced by commercial banks in Bangladesh nowadays is credit risk, which has had a negative impact on the economic progress of the country. The purpose of the study is to scrutinize how, and to what level, the indicators of credit risk influence the profitability of commercial banks in Bangladesh. Using quantile regression analysis, this study examined a panel dataset for 22 sample commercial banks during the years 2008 to 2017. The results show that Loan Loss Provision to NPL ratio and Cost per Loan ratio were found to have a significant positive impact on Return on Assets (ROA), while Capital Adequacy ratio and Leverage ratio have a significant negative impact on the performance of banks. However, Non-Performing Loan ratio, Loan Loss Provision to Total Asset, Loan Loss Provision to Total Loan, Total Loan to Total Asset, and Log of Total Asset and Deposit, were found to have an insignificant impact on the profitability. The findings of the study assert that credit risk has a noteworthy negative impact on profitability. The study recommends that bank management should be more strategic in credit risk assessment, to curtail the exposure to credit risk and to boost profitability.

Keywords: Credit Risk, Return on Assets (ROA), Quantile Regression, Private Commercial Banks, Bangladesh

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