Causal Relationship between Gold, Crude Oil & US Dollar Rates and S&P BSE 100 in India: An Experimental Study

Abstract

In the present globalized business scenario, volatility in gold price, international crude oil price, and US Dollar exchange rate are likely to stimulate uncertainty in stock market conditions globally. The degree of uncertainty in stock market is high in the case of developing nations like India. Therefore, the study of causal relationship of gold, crude oil, and US Dollar rates with the stock market indices (S&P BSE 100) in India is more appropriate. The researchers have analyzed these macroeconomic variables along with the S&P BSE 100 with the help of econometric tools viz. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit-Root, Johansen Co-Integration Test, Pairwise Granger Causality Tests, Vector Auto Regression Modeling, Variance Decomposition test, and Impulse responses analysis. The econometric research software called EVIEWS 6 was used to apply all those tools successfully. The result shows that there is a high impression in the Indian stock market due to the volatility happens in the described macroeconomic factors.

Keywords: Macro Economic Variables, S&P BSE 100, Causal Relationship

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