Time Series Forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar
Published: 2011
Author(s) Name: Abdel Kader Boudi and Zouaoui Chikr-el-Mezouar
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Abstract
The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and
appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated
Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of
forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a
tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as
follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is
ARIMA(1,0,1)x(2,1,2)4 with a constant.
KEYWORDS: tourism, Time Series, SARIMA, Box-Jenkins,
Forecasting and Algeria.
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