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Time Series Forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar

International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Systems

Volume 4 Issue 1

Published: 2011
Author(s) Name: Abdel Kader Boudi and Zouaoui Chikr-el-Mezouar
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Abstract

The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is ARIMA(1,0,1)x(2,1,2)4 with a constant. KEYWORDS: tourism, Time Series, SARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Forecasting and Algeria.

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