Business Cycle Chronology For Indian Economy: A Turning Point Analysis
Published: 2019
Author(s) Name: Sumanpreet Kaur |
Author(s) Affiliation: Senior Research Fellow (NET/ UGC), Department of Economics, Panjab University, Chandigarh
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Abstract
Business cycle analysis is important
for estimating and monitoring
the fluctuations in an
economy. In the present study,
the classical, growth and growth
rate cycles have been identified
for the Indian economy using
monthly Index of Industrial Production
(IIP) as the reference
series. The Bry-Boschan (BB)
procedure has been used for
dating the turning points for
respective approaches for the
period 1971: M1 to 2017: M10.
Two classical cycles, thirteen
growth cycles, and sixteen
growth rate cycles were identified
in IIP with an average duration
of 215, 38 and 32 months
respectively. The expansions are
much larger than contractions
in classical cycles, however,
growth and growth rate cycles
exhibit more or less same durations.
Keywords: N.A.
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