Inter-linkages between India and World Stock Markets and European Debt Crisis

Abstract

This paper examines the inter-linkages and long run co-integration of Indian economy with other economies of the world (US, Europe, Other Emerging markets, and World economy) using standard indices of MSCI over the period April, 2001 to March, 2013. We also investigate Indian economys response to recent global turbulence European Debt crisis (EDC). We use Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test and Impulse response analysis of Vector auto-regression framework to test various hypotheses. There is no contagious effect of EDC on Indian economy. During post-EDC, the Indian economy is granger caused by US and world economies. Further during the pre as well as post- EDC period, no cointegrating relationship has been found. This low level of co integration, despite presence of short run causal relationship, shows that global shocks might destabilize Indian economy in long run. Especially, Impulse response analysis revealed that Indian economy seems to be affected from the shocks created in the European markets and such shock persists in Indian economy for more than 10 months. These results have important policy implications. The policy makers need to understand that although there is no contagious effect of EDC on Indian economy but interdependency can destabilize Indian economy for much longer period.

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Inter-Linkages, Granger Causality, Johansen Co-Integration Test, Impulse Response Analysis, European Debt Crisis

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